Agora: Putin has been planning this invasion for over 25 years. We talked about this in class in 2008. It has nothing to do with NATO. Putin always believed that he deserves to rule over the former Soviet “empire” - his raison d’être has always been Tsar Putin. Even his wife left him for it. That’s not an easy thing to do.
Chris: Did you say that we've been planning to expand NATO to the Russian border using the "it's totally an opt-in organization for from and democracy and not a tool for imperialism" argument? Also, nobody can believe "Putin's been planning this for 25 years" and also "Putin was caught unprepared and his military performed terribly and with out-of-date weaponry." Illogical. BS detector is going off. Sorry. Sounds like crap.
Chris: Did you say that we've been planning to expand NATO to the Russian border using the "it's totally an opt-in organization for from and democracy and not a tool for imperialism" argument? Also, nobody can believe "Putin's been planning this for 25 years" and also "Putin was caught unprepared and his military performed terribly and with out-of-date weaponry." Illogical. BS detector is going off. Sorry. Sounds like crap. You can't both say that Putin's army is unprepared, pathetic, weak, etc; and, also, Putin has been carefully planning Western domination, without very much imperialism for 25 years "just planning" for 6 times the length of a presidential term, only to mostly boff it. I can't believe you believe this. You're not alone. 93% of westerners with IQs above 130 also believe this very fragile patriotic narrative. Groan.
Google Bard:
He may have been waiting for the right opportunity. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left Russia in a weakened state, and Putin may have felt that it was not yet strong enough to take on Ukraine or other former Soviet republics. However, in recent years, Russia has rebuilt its military and economy, and Putin may have felt that the time was right to make a move.
He may have been waiting for the West to become complacent. The West has been focused on other issues in recent years, such as the war in Iraq and the global financial crisis. This may have given Putin the impression that the West was not paying close attention to what was happening in Ukraine, and that he could therefore act with impunity.
He may have been waiting for a pretext for war. Putin may have been hoping that Ukraine would do something to provoke Russia, such as joining NATO or conducting military exercises near the Russian border. This would have given him a justification for invading Ukraine, which he could then sell to the Russian people as a necessary act of self-defense.
OpenAI ChatGPT-4 Plus:
International relations: Attempting to annex Ukraine or any former Soviet Bloc nation would likely result in severe international backlash, including economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and potential military conflict.
NATO's deterrent: Many of the former Soviet Bloc nations, such as the Baltic states, have joined NATO, which promises collective defense against any aggressor. This fact would seriously complicate any attempts by Russia to reassert control over these countries.
Economic considerations: Russia's economy has had its ups and downs since the fall of the Soviet Union. Taking aggressive action could further destabilize the economy, particularly if it leads to sanctions or war.
Internal politics: Putin's power within Russia isn't absolute. He needs to maintain the support of various factions within the Russian political establishment. Too aggressive a foreign policy could alienate important supporters.
Changing demographics and attitudes: The people of the former Soviet Bloc nations have had decades to develop their own national identities and political systems. Many of them, especially younger generations, may resist attempts to bring them back under Russian control.
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S5E17: Why would Putin wait 25 years to retake former Soviet Bloc nations? How can Putin be both a Genghis Khan-type and also a Jimmy Carter-type concurrently?